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NOT A common TRANSITIONPresident-elect Biden make the efforts to job an air of calm confidence even as the coronavirus surges and his transition is delayed. The latest from UVA academy of Democracy experts.November 17, 2020Today"s postsWhy the shift matters • Melody Barnes
Melody Barnes, co-director the UVA"s Democracy Initiative and a Miller center professor that practice, join CBC to talk about the latest on the shift to a Biden administration.
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THE prices OF DELAYThe president-elect moves forward, yet what are the threats of continued conflict about the outcomes of the 2020 election?November 16, 2020Today"s postsTransition troubles, 1968 • Marc SelverstoneVaccine distribution and a unstable transition • Margaret RileyIf the chairman won"t concede • chris LuHomeland defense risks • UVA Today
Presidential transitions are amongst the many sacred however precarious of moments in the American political lifecycle. The relaxed transfer of power from one management to an additional has to be a main point principle the American democracy because that well over 200 years. But transitions are also moments of innate instability, v one collection of public official heading because that the exits and also another one hitting the on-ramps. When outgoing and incoming administrations have long endeavored to impact smooth handovers, any number of developments, from the an individual to the politics to the geopolitical, deserve to make it a perilous process.
Transitions space moments of innate instability.
As such, transitions show off a breakable dance in the finest of circumstances. But transferring power amidst ongoing and intersecting national situations magnifies the difficulty of ensuring efficient governance and promoting the national interest—even more so as soon as the readjust involves a move of strength from one party to another.
The presidential shift of 1968 to be one together moment. It took place against the background of number of shattering advancements that year: the Tet Offensive and also a deeply divisive war in Vietnam; the withdrawal of President lyndon B. Johnson from the presidential race; the assassinations of civil rights icon Martin Luther King Jr. And also Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Robert F. Kennedy; civil and also racial unrest transparent the nation; and also violent altercations in ~ the democratic National Convention in Chicago. To many Americans, the nation seemed to it is in unraveling.
For lindon Johnson, who soon would vacate the Oval Office, the change also came v the knowledge that President-elect Richard M. Nixon, in late October, had sabotaged the start of peace talks in Vietnam, and with it, the possibility that democratic candidate hobtration H. Humphrey—the sitting vice president—might benefit and win the presidency. Johnson to be livid, yet he satellite on the information rather 보다 leaking it, fearing a hold of problem that can flow from that disclosure. Nixon was for this reason able to hang on, explain 301 votes in the Electoral university to Humphrey’s 191, but winning just 43.2 percent that the popular vote come Humphrey’s 42.7 percent (third-party candidate George Wallace garnered close come 14 percent).
To countless Americans, the nation seemed to it is in unraveling.
Nevertheless, the transition seemed to it is in proceeding apace. Nixon told Johnson, in a conversation caught by LBJ’s White house taping system, the he evaluate the participation he was receiving indigenous Johnson personnel. And Johnson said Nixon what he had previously said to Reverend Billy Graham and also Nixon girlfriend Sen. George A. Smathers
So once Nixon briefed journalists just hours after that November 14 the he no only essential to it is in “informed” that U.S. Policymaking throughout the change but that he “agree” to any type of proposed “courses of action,” Johnson acquired his hackles up as soon as again. The united States, Johnson called Nixon aides and also Nixon himself, had only one chairman at a time. Still, there was a change to manage, with the whole world watching. As the two principals acknowledged that morning, it was crucial that the outgoing and also incoming teams be aligned, because the Soviet Union would
take advantage of you in an electoral period. They did in the
But Nixon’s statement intimidated to tie Johnson’s hands. Follow to Nixon, he merely wanted come emphasize that “any major policy decision that has to be enforced by the new president, the old—the ahead adminis—the present management would want to clean it v the new administration to be certain it would certainly be implemented.”
The Miller facility at UVA · 14 November 1968: President lyndon Johnson and also President-elect Richard Nixon
Johnson was having none that it. As he told the President-elect, “I’m an extremely fearful if we leave the impression in the human being that we have to check with
With that, the contretemps concerned an end. Yet it highlights the recurrent difficulty of policymaking during the interregnum, and the new of our existing moment. For all of Nixon’s malfeasance both then and also later, and also Johnson’s legitimate concern about an choice that might have to be improperly swayed, if not stolen, both sides gone after the time-honored and also solemn tradition of carrying power in a professional, orderly fashion, through the country interests in mind. Remarkably, the presidential shift of 1968, native the view of 2020, seems practically quaint.—Marc Selverstone, chair, Presidential Recordings Program, müller Center
With Moderna’s notice this morning that preliminary results demonstrate that that vaccine is 94 percent effective, the nation now has two highly effective vaccines the could start to it is in handed out by the finish of the year.
That method distribution is about to begin during among the strangest presidential transitions in modern-day times—and concerns abound around how the Trump management might politicize it. This is currently evident in president Trump’s remarks on Friday. Somewhat inaccurately acquisition credit for the Pfizer vaccine, Trump can not stand up to a destruction at Andrew Cuomo, putting into question just how some Blue states might be treated in the vaccine rollout.
It is likewise not clear whether the just arrived Biden administration will be detailed any official info on the process. In addition, procedure Warp Speed, which will be responsible for the logistics, is heavily controlled by the Pentagon, and a major shake-up in ~ the height of that agency, through Trump loyalists taking charge, adds come the concerns.
The trumped administration, however, is somewhat in a bind. The no doubt desires to take credit for the vaccines (and in fairness, that deserves several of that credit), therefore sabotaging the early rollout throughout December and early January makes no sense. And many that the circulation plans are already in place and public.
The Pentagon logistics space under the control of four-star basic Gus Perna, a career military officer likely to have the ability to sustain the politics gamesmanship of the next couple of weeks.
Pfizer and Moderna likewise have every impetus for a smooth rollout. CDC published a full “playbook” because that the rollout at the finish of October. Even the incoming Biden administration has many of backchannel means of obtaining information. The greatest difficulty, however, is likely to be obtaining the funds because that the cash-strapped says to train the people who will certainly actually it is in storing and administering the vaccines and also keeping the essential records.
None the the states have actually close to enough funds for that, and without those funds, the distribution of the vaccine can descend right into chaos, leaving the Trump administration to take victory for the production of the vaccine when weakening the Biden administration’s monitoring of the subsequent steps.—Margaret Riley, professor that Law, UVA college of Law; professor the Public health and wellness Sciences, UVA college of Medicine
Chris Lu, a miller Center an elderly fellow who ran the Obama change in 2008–9, discusses exactly how this
year"s unsettled shift affects the just arrived Biden administration—and Americans. "We have had presidential transitions because that over 200 years in this country," Lu told hold Jen White. "We"ve done it through war and depression and also even once the two civilization on either next of the transition fought a bitterness campaign. Therefore this has constantly happened, and it needs to occur well. We"re talking about the sales in management of the U.S. Government, which is the largest, most an effective organization in the world."
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A peaceful and also prompt shift of strength is an important to both the wellness of American democracy and the nation’s security, Janet Napolitano and also Michael Chertoff said Friday in a webinar organized by the college of Virginia’s Institute for Democracy and also the fearbut Center.
They would certainly know. Chertoff offered as secretary the homeland protection under chairman George W. Shrub from 2005 come 2009. He managed the department’s handoff come Napolitano, a UVA college of law alumna who offered as secretary of homeland security under chairman Barack Obama native 2009 to 2013.
“Having a transition that starts right away, getting security clearance to the incoming team, providing the president-elect accessibility to current intelligence – these room all part of the procedure of preparing, therefore that as soon as a brand-new administration come in, they can hit the soil running and not have actually to figure out what the hazards are and also what the capabilities come respond are,” Chertoff said.
In addition to Napolitano and Chertoff, Friday’s webinar included David Marchick, director of the nonpartisan center for Presidential change at the Partnership for Public Service, and moderator wilhelm Antholis, director and also CEO of UVA’s Miller facility for publicly Affairs. The was funded by the UVA Institute because that Democracy, the center for Presidential Transition, and Citizens for a solid Democracy, a nonpartisan company that Napolitano and Chertoff founded with two other previous secretaries of countryside security.
Antholis began the webinar with a question around the procedure of “ascertainment”—a legal process by which the basic Services management gives the president-elect accessibility to resources and classified info needed during the transition from one presidential management to another. That process is mandated through the Presidential change Act to start once the outcomes of the election room clear. As of Friday, Emily Murphy, head that the general Services management (and a UVA legislation alumna), had actually not yet signed the paperwork.
“The issue of ascertaining the winner of the choice
The nation experienced a similar hold-up in 2000, when the ascertainment process was delayed as result of recounts in Florida the eventually determined the winner that the presidential election between George W. Bush and Al Gore. The election was closer 보다 this one, Marchick said, noting the this time, he believes “the outcome is clear.”
Chertoff, who came in v the shrub administration, claimed the 2000 hold-up hurt the administration’s capacity to respond to national security concerns, especially due to the fact that it took longer to complete the Senate confirmation procedure for key positions. The gap ended up being especially apparent during the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks.
“I remained in the room of justice on 9/11 and we were shorthanded in an elderly people, so that we had actually to basically do double- and triple-duty to choose up responsibilities that typically would have actually been taken by others who had actually been confirmed,” the said.
Napolitano also stressed the importance of a smooth handoff, recalling how, after their very own turbulent transition experience, Chertoff and the entire bush team made the a point to aid their successors as lot as possible.
“I was then serving as branch of Arizona, and also could no fly earlier and forth generally to Washington,” she said. “Michael sent management from the room of Homeland defense out to Phoenix, and they had comprehensive briefing materials prepared for me and my team.
“I offer President bush credit for this. He set the tone and direction for a cooperative transition, and also I think it was the gold standard of presidential transitions. President Obama provided the exact same direction come his administration, and used the Bush change as an example, yet unfortunately numerous members of president Trump’s team did not take him increase on it.”
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ASSESSING THE RISKSBiden wins Arizona. DHS declares the election secure. There"s chaos at the room of Defense. UVA institute for Democracy experts examine the implications.November 13, 2020Today"s postsA presidential transition delayed • Kathryn Dunn TenpasStacey Abrams, power broker • Barbara Perry and Alfred Reaves IVArizona"s Hispanic vote • Cristina Lopez-Gottardi ChaoTrump puts stays at risk • Melody Barnes and also Kathryn Dunn TenpasPentagon purges raise significant concerns • william Antholis
Miller Center senior fellow Kathryn Dunn Tenpas looks at the risks of a delayed shift on Politics with Amy Walter indigenous PRI and also WNYC.
If ~ Georgia completes that is recount, Joe Biden is still front of Donald Trump, the previous vice president and president-elect will certainly owe Stacey Abrams a major debt of gratitude because that improbably flipping the Peach State from blood red come pale blue, at the very least at the presidential level.
Although Abrams shed the 2018 Georgia governor’s race, her losing margin of just 1.4 percent and the specter the voter suppression energized the former state legislator to mount an activist campaign to register and also turn out voters, especially African Americans. Abrams started Fair fight Action, a grassroots interest group, come combat the stifling of black color votes in Georgia and also Texas. She movement, in concert with various other activist organizations, galvanized the ground game in Abrams’s home state, whereby some 750,000 new voters registered.
Georgia had actually not selected a autonomous presidential candidate since Arkansan invoice Clinton’s 1992 effective White house bid. This year, 59.3 percent the first-time voters in the Peach State voted together Democrats, when 35.9 percent actors their ballots together Republicans. Clearly, this distinction helped come account because that Georgia’s placement in the Biden-Harris column.
While leading the fight for poll equity, Abrams has end up being a nationwide icon and best-selling author for she book, our Time Is Now: Power, Purpose, and the Fight for a fair America. It echoes a previous female autonomous Party strength broker, Eleanor Roosevelt, whose critical tome, published posthumously, was titled Tomorrow Is Now. How ideal that this recent king-/queen-maker in the democratic Party both adheres to in the footsteps the ER and blazes a wholly new trail—one that deserve to only it is in forged through an african American woman.
The modern-day team the Abrams and vice-president-elect Kamala Harris can utilize their mandate to accomplish the policies long battled for by generations of black ladies who have actually reliably supported the democratic Party because the new Deal, yet without due recompense.—Barbara Perry, Gerald L. Baliles Professor, director of Presidential Studies, müller Center—Alfred Reaves IV, faculty and also program coordinator, müller Center
Last night, Arizona tilted in Biden’s favor—a breakthrough that flipped the state blue for the first time in virtually a quarter century. Similar come 2016 once Trump won Arizona by just 3.6 percentage points, 2020 witnessed an even tighter race, with Biden acquisition the lead 49.4% to Trump’s 49.1% as of this morning. Provided the state’s large Hispanic population—estimated at simply over 23% of the state’s eligible voters—it’s advantageous to consider how this cohort might have impacted 2020 outcomes.
According to the Washington Post, Biden winner 63% the Arizona’s Latino vote, compared to 36% that went to Trump. This differs substantially from Trump’s Latino support in Florida, whereby roughly fifty percent of spain eligible voters supported him. Yet the assembly of Arizona’s Latino share differs significantly from the sunshine state who Hispanic majorities include Cuban Americans and also Puerto Ricans.
The assembly of Arizona’s Latino re-publishing differs substantially from the sunshine state whose Hispanic majorities include Cuban Americans and also Puerto Ricans.
According come 2014 Pew data, the large majority of Arizona Hispanics—over 87%—originate from surrounding Mexico, with the next biggest cohort coming from Puerto Rico (but they account for less than 3% that the state’s complete Latino electorate). And also Mexican Americans tend to lean in the direction of the democratic party, perhaps influenced in part by the state’s hard immigration laws, an especially Arizona’s Senate bill 1070 and also its “show your papers” provision.
But together Professor Gerardo Cadava aptly points out, understanding the Latino poll is not constantly a straightforward calculation. He writes, “There"s a genuine diversity of political beliefs, and we have to acknowledge that Latinos are fully human, complex political actors, quite than simply kind that pawns that are quickly poached or persuaded, just due to the fact that a politician talks to them.” Cadava researches Hispanic Republicans, specifically those in the sunlight Belt, and he points come Trump’s (and the GOP’s) expertise that plenty of Hispanics prioritize economic individualism, spiritual liberty, and law and order, all values that align with the conservative movement. So assessing their views in a state prefer Arizona, while a majority of mexico Americans skinny left, deserve to be a facility task.
This year Latinos to be projected for the an initial time to be the nation’s largest gyeongju or country voting minority—representing 13.3% the the complete U.S. Electorate—a tendency that will proceed to impact elections outcomes in the future. And while turnout has actually been a challenge for Latinos in the past, early estimates indicate that 2020 may have adjusted that. Together we continue to dissect this year’s choice results, both parties would certainly be wise to pay fist to this cohort, its numerous subsets, that is seeming contradictions, and the differences in between Hispanic voter in every state. One point is certain, party message to Latinos have to not it is in uniform.—Cristina Lopez-Gottardi Chao, assistant professor and research director for public and policy programs, fearbut Center
This complete op-ed appeared in the Washington Post
It is now 10 days since Election work and nearly a week due to the fact that the networks asserted Joe Biden the president-elect. Nevertheless, Emily Murphy, the trumped appointee who controls change funding and permits accessibility to senior officials across the government through her write-up at the optimal of the general Services Administration, has actually refused to “ascertain” the winner the the presidential election. There is no concern that she is encountering pressure indigenous the White house to was standing firm, yet her intransigence threatens our centuries-old commitment to a peaceful and also efficient deliver of government.
Her actions properly truncate an currently brief transition period (78 days), break long-established norms around how a losing president concedes and helps the incoming administration prepare to operation the government. The worry is even much more grave because the country is struggling to defeat a pandemic, i beg your pardon is gaining worse together cases and also hospitalizations hit document levels. And the fallout will be significant — affect every ar of the economy as well as ratcheting increase the level of emotionally turmoil and trauma.
Murphy’s reluctance denies Biden’s just arrived White home aides crucial resources: extr funding to pay for transition expenses (e.g., salaries, supplies, travel), the salvation of additional office space, progressing the vetting the potential nominees v the FBI and, perhaps most important, accessibility to the polite servants who have prepared considerable reports in ready for this an extremely moment. The ability to interview outgoing appointees and also civil servants is basic to the effective transfer the power.
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—Melody Barnes, co-director for policy and also public affairs, UVA Democracy Initiative; Professor of practice, miller Center
—Kathryn Dunn Tenpas, senior fellow, fearbut Center
President Donald Trump"s Monday shooting of Secretary the Defense note Esper was only the beginning of significant changes at the the Pentagon. In addition to replacing Esper with Christopher Miller, the president appointed Anthony Tata to replace James Anderson, who had actually been exhilaration undersecretary because that policy. Joseph Kernan, a retired navy vice admiral, stepped down as undersecretary because that intelligence and also was replaced by Ezra Cohen-Watnick. Kash Patel becomes Miller"s chief of staff.
"The Pentagon purges are many troubling due to the fact that there are two months remaining,” the müller Center"s Director and also CEO william Antholis, called Susan Glasser that the New Yorker. Is the president making major policy changes, or simply feeling complimentary to indulge his feelings in the wake of a disappointing election?